There are two main pillars in my research. One is the study of the reasons behind international trade negotiations and the process taken to arrive at their results. Analysis is carried out using documentary records and interviews with the relevant parties.

Using trade friction between Japan and the US as an example, when the US saw an increase in its trade deficit against Japan, it made various demands to sell its products in Japan’s market.

For Japan, it was a matter of which areas to concede, but at staff level negotiations between ministries and agencies, they could only work within their own areas. Thus, compromises such as accepting the conditions for industrial products in lieu of liberalizing agricultural imports were difficult. However, decisions that bridged the siloed administration became possible through negotiations between top-level politicians of the two countries.

The same phenomenon can be seen in negotiations for free trade agreements (FTAs), which combine various fields into a single package and are signed to reduce or eliminate the barriers to trade—such as tariffs—between certain countries and regions. By adeptly controlling who conducted negotiations at each stage and the order of negotiations for each item, Japan was able to conduct negotiations while avoiding the difficult issue of agricultural products.

At first, Japan was one of the countries that were most reluctant to FTAs. However, in the early 2000s, Japan succeeded in signing FTAs at a pace deemed fast globally. This move strengthened Japan’s subsequent position and also led to today’s agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Using simulations to verify the theories of international politics

The other pillar of my research is multi-agent simulation. Originally, multi-agent simulation was a method often used in the study of complexity. It is suited for analyzing mutual interactions between particles, animals, humans, countries, and such. I am adept at creating virtual countries inside computers using software, making these “countries” act according to the theories of international politics, and checking to see if the theoretical results are obtained.

For example, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and World Trade Organization (WTO) advocating multilateralism and liberalization were established to avoid forming exclusive economic blocs. I use virtual countries to verify the theories about how these systems were established and how they will change.

If a theory cannot explain the simple mutual interactions between virtual countries, there is no way it can explain our complex society in the real world. I conduct simulations to verify theories as a step before validating them.

Furthermore, in recent years, economic coercion and the weaponization of interdependence are gaining attention due to the economic friction between China and the US, the sanctions on Russia, and other such context. I am trying to use simulations to analyze the kind of impact that this trend of economic security to protect a country’s economy—through friend-shoring (shifting production to friendly countries) and such—has on international politics.

Political science is a field that looks at humans and society

Looking at today’s friction between China and the US, we see occurrences that are similar to those that happened between Japan and the US. In international politics, phenomena that appear unrelated to each other at first may share causal mechanisms. When you realize this, you will start to think about the underlying reasons when you see various news reports and gain a set of tools for predicting the future state of international politics.

Political science is a field that analyzes humans and society using scientific methods. International politics is complex and difficult to understand, and I hope to explain it as much as possible from the causal mechanisms. This is the mindset I adopt when taking on research.

The book I recommend

“Exit, Voice, and Loyalty”
by Albert O. Hirschman, Harvard University Press

A person can either exit or voice when dissatisfied with an organization. The impact on an organization from the synergy effect of these two options is explained using examples. People with strong opinions tend to exit, making it difficult to improve. This book raises awareness about the mechanisms in daily life and broadens perspectives, and its concept is applicable to different things in life.

Interviewed: October 2023